OECD: 2% growth in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026

The Greek economy will continue to grow, recording growth rates above 2% both this year and in 2026. However, the new Trump tariffs combined with the relaxation of external demand, especially from EU trading partners such as Germany, will slow down the growth of exports, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) noted.

The role of the Recovery Fund in boosting investment remains crucial, with minimum wage increases contributing to higher consumption as exports slow down in parallel with external demand. At the same time, the Organization pointed out that any delays in the absorption of European funds, excessive wage increases or possible extreme weather phenomena could negatively affect the prospects of the Greek economy.

According to the OECD’s new forecasts, inflation will decline from 2.5% this year to 2.0% in 2026, due to the downward trend in oil prices, despite rising trade costs and persistent inflation in services.

For Greece, the OECD estimated that it will continue to record high primary surpluses of 2.1% of GDP in 2025 and 2.2% of GDP in 2026, mainly due to improvements in the fight against tax evasion. As it noted, stronger tax revenues, increased by new tax collection measures, are expected to support sustainable primary surpluses and create room for additional spending.

GDP growth is projected to remain resilient at 2.0% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. Rising disposable income will support consumption growth. Investment growth, supported by increasing disbursements of the Recovery and Resilience Funds, will remain robust despite heightened international uncertainty.

A primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026 would contribute to a further reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio to 140% in 2026. Despite the fact that public debt is on a downward trend, it remains high, advising the government to prioritize its further reduction. It projects a reduction in public debt as a percentage of GDP to 145.2% this year and 139.8% in 2026.

The Greek economy faces demographic challenges, while investment needs are leading to further pressure on spending. According to the OECD, maintaining the momentum of reforms to improve the business environment and alleviate high labor shortages will support investment growth.

Continued efforts to reduce tax evasion and contain tax expenditures would increase revenues, while creating room for lower taxes and higher employment.